jeudi 31 mars 2011

About Nuclear Plant Safety

In wikipedia I found a  probability of accident (fuel melting) for the first generation of nuclear plant : 5 / 100,000 per reactor and per year .
In 2009  we have reached  a total  of 13,000  years of use. We should have got  13,000 * 5 / 100,000 = 0.65 accidents (or much less because recent reactors are more secure)

Number of accidents with fuel melting that I have found :

  • one in the US. (1979 TMI-2 Three Mile Island )
  • one in England. (1957 Windscale )
  • one in Ukraine. (1986 RMBK Tchernobyl )
  • one in Russia. (1977 ABM200 Beloyarsh)
  • one in Japan. (  2011 BWR Mark 1 Fujushima)
  • two in France.(1969 1980 Centre de St Laurent du Cher)

7/.65= 10 times the probability given.  The 13,000 years include also  the most secure nuclear installations.

That is why I believe we have got to find a solution that works in the worst case: the loss of everything but a reactor about to explode in its confinement :  no staff, no electricity, no cooling (no water, no air),even the gravity might not be completely usable because the reactor might lose its horizontality.

If we decide to achieve such a security target  then we might find  that  nuclear corporations are a good investment.  Oil price would rise accordingly.

They still need to work a little, to involve a lot of people in the research.

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